With a simple algorithm, I predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election. This time I made a more detailed examination, but the result was the same; Trump will win in 2020. Here is why.
Trump has proven to be more or less untouchable. His average job approval rating has continuously been at around 40% despite several eggs being crushed on the 5th avenue. In 2016 approximately 23% of those eligible to vote, voted for Trump. Yes, that is all it takes. Unless of course, the current administration will drastically change the American voting behavior. Which, of course, is possible but not very likely.
Trump has been able to ride out every single crisis without losing his base, the religious right, or the core of the Republican party. Many of the challenges he has faced would have crushed any other politician. But not him. Whether you see it as fool´s luck or a political genius outsmarting everyone else, his ability to ride out storms has always been his superpower. Sure, there are several bullets left in the “fake news“ arsenal, but they are all variations of already failed attempts.
As long as Trump can take the credit for the good economy and claim that The Wall is almost finished, he is invincible. If things get too shaky and the national emergency concerning the wall is not enough Trump can always play the war card like so many Presidents before him. Trump is like a solid basketball team that will continuously score 100 points per game. All he needs to do is to make sure his opponent does not score more. His two trump cards are the Democratic party and the electoral college system.
In 2016 The Democrats underestimated the hate towards Hillary Clinton which is as American as apple pie and the AR-15. In 2020 the Democrats will miscalculate the fear of socialism and the embedded racism that just cannot be washed away. None of the multiple Democratic candidates will stand a chance against Trump. Biden is too old, Beto is too young, Sanders one and only boat sank in 2016, Booker is just another Obama, and the rest of the strong candidates lack the Y-chromosome. Yes, I´m sorry to all my MeToo and PussyHat peeps. The city upon the hill, the land of the free, the only and best hope for the world is just not ready for a female president. Trump has the amazing capability of being the biggest bully in the room and at the same time make himself a victim of presidential harassment. A female candidate will be crushed merely for not being likable or not having a pleasant enough laughter.
It will not be a fair fight. The biggest weakness female candidates have is that women do not stand up for them. Gender does not seem to be a big enough reason for women to come together and fight off a sexual predator. Women are good at screaming foul but bad at showing that frustration at the ballot box. They are getting better at it but to break that glass ceiling more needs to be done. Those women who wear the pink hat and let gender strongly affect their vote are predominantly voting in New England and California. I have to admit that I do not know this for a fact, I just know it is true. Due to the electoral college system, the gender affected voters in the blue states will only matter in a game that is not being played; the popular vote. Their leftist feminism will just feed the support for Trump in the red and purple states. It is like a losing Baseball team crying that the game was unfair because they made more home runs.
Whereas Trump can continue his successful rhetoric with simplified slogans and false claims. The Democrats need to be more polished and avoid alternative facts. Those who will enter the octagon and try to outplay Trump at his own game will lose. Those who will seek the politically correct approach with a real debate, real solutions, and actual facts will make voters sleepy and make them swipe left. Damn, politicians are boring! I wonder who that reality star has offended today? Whoever will be the quarterback for the Democrats, will be forced, by the new young guns in the party, to start throwing hail Mary´s to the left. Healthcare for all, feminism, social programs, global warming and other issues doomed to die at the altar of FREEDOM. It is like putting Windows on your MacBook, it should theoretically work, but we all know it is poison and will end up in a disaster.
There is, of course, the small possibility that I am wrong. Two issues can ruin my otherwise waterproof prediction. It is possible that out of the broad field of Democratic leaders one will prevail as a severe threat to the President. I will hedge my bet by guessing that Kamala Harris or Beto O´rourke might come up with some new Kung Fu tactic that will prove effective against the pussy grabbing wolf of Manhattan. Out of the female candidates, Kamala is the strongest with few glaring flaws. However, her not being able to keep track on what music she was listening to while getting stoned over 20 years ago, and the fact that she prosecuted suspected criminals according to the law while working as a prosecutor might be evidence enough for Trump to declare her a Stalinist. Beto O´rourke might be able to turn his youth to his advantage and introduce himself as a white Obama without the “Hussein” effect. Maybe his rough edge spiced up with his tactical habit of dropping F-bombs will be seen as powerful enough to wobble Trump.
The other possible obstacle for me going 2-2, or 2-0 as Trump would say, is that bloody witch hunt led by the out-of-control Mueller and his 13 angry Democrats. Who knows when and what his report will reveal? And how much of it will be available to the public? It will probably expose half as much as the Democrats hope for and less than half as much as Trump deserves. Whatever Mueller´s conclusions are I have a feeling it will be something more severe than dishonesty about a blowjob. But it would be a mistake for the Democrats to impeach the President.
The only ones who can, and should do so, are the Republicans. They will not. They are like that desperate drunk at the roulette table who is waist deep in excrement. Their only option is to ride the Trump-train till the bitter end. The Democrats will never get the required 60% in the Senate to successfully impeach the president. And if they, by some miracle do, the political mayhem will be disastrous. Nixon resigned at the threat of almost certain impeachment. Trump is not the kind of a man who steps down for the sake of the country. He will double down with the support of Sean Hannity, Alex Jones, and the second amendment people. Good luck with that America!
God has blessed me with more than my fair share, but the one thing he did not give me was American citizenship. This is the reason why I became an atheist. Therefore, I cannot vote in favor of my own prediction. Regardless of my bitterness I will once again go all in and place my chips on orange.
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