Mayor Pete is the upcoming star in the overly crowded race to become the Democratic nominee for the 2020 presidential election. He is 37 years old, looks fit and healthy. He is not only a military veteran who protected the freedom of the civilized world in Afghanistan but also a graduate from both Harvard and Oxford. Since 2012 he has been the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and is one of the few Democratic candidates with experience of executive power.
On stage and during interviews, he seems relaxed and gives comprehensive answers with correctly and logically structured sentences. Trumponish is clearly not a language he speaks, at least not publically. He got standing ovations at Fox News town hall and justifiably stole Beto O'rourke place in the media spotlight. Some draw similarities between this Alfred E. Neuman look-alike and Obama; perhaps he will be the redeemer of the Democratic party?
It is plausible that DNC will once again outplay Bernie Sanders as they did in 2016? Perhaps Kamala Harris will choke on the testicles she ripped off Biden in the first Democratic debate? Maybe, Sleepy-Joe will not be able to bounce back from the humiliation? Elisabeth Warren might simply give up, move to Jamestown, and rejoin her Native American tribe. It is possible, but not very likely. For the sake of argument, let's say this scenario comes to pass, and we will see a battle between Trump and Mayor Pete.
In today's polarized America, the political views of the candidates and their agendas are of secondary importance. It does not come down to what you say, but how you say it. In 2016 Trump won by 77,744 votes spread out in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. In Trumponish this is called a "landslide," in English one could say that Hillary Clinton lost with 0,057% of the votes cast. When the margins are this small, and the big political questions have been carved in stone; the political micro incentives will determine who wins.
You are right to wonder what I mean by: "political micro incentives." I've made that word up when I created my election prediction algorithm, which so far has worked flawlessly. When all the data concerning a race between Trump and Mayor Pete are inserted, there is no doubt in my mind that Donald Trump would win. Here is why.
Names matter
In 1877 a man called Alois Schicklgruber decided to change his family name. His illegitimately born son, who often rebelled against his father, realized the value of the name and kept it, despite his hatred.
Several years later, the rebellious son managed to get himself elected to become the dictator of Germany. Only about a decade earlier, he had been the most unlikely person to become a national leader. As Herr Schicklgruber, he would have had no chance, but as Adolf Hitler, he was unstoppable.
It was unfortunate that somewhere along the line, Drumpf got changed into Trump. Perhaps those 77744 voters would have voted differently in 2016 if the name would have been less hefty. There is a reason why Pete Buttigieg calls himself Mayor Pete. The alias might work in a Mayor's race's, but in the big leagues, "President Pete" goes into the category with "Postman Pat".
Not only is the name Buttigieg long, but it is difficult to pronounce, and then, of course, it contains a profanity. Any ordinary politician would be ridiculed when pointing this out. But not Trump, rest ashore: he will come up with some juvenile insult concerning Mr. Butt and pay no political repercussion for it.
About 50% of the US presidential elections can be considered to have been tight races, or "landslides" in Trumponish. In 75% of these close races, the candidate with the shorter or more forceful sounding name became the leader of the free world. Names matter. Trump v. Buttigieg 1-0.
¿Que hablas?
When Mitt Romney ran for President as the Republican nominee in 2012, he tried to downplay his fluency in French. It would have been seen as elitism and therefore a weakness for the Republican swing voters. Obama proudly boasted about his Kenyan native tongue of Dholuo, and based on how the Trumpeteers still believe that he is a Muslim he must also be fluent in Arabic. Few candidates can be as arrogant as Obama and get away with it. Mayor Pete is not one of them.
Buttigieg speaks eight languages. Not perfectly, as he is always quick to remind anyone asking, but he can keep a conversation going. For most people in most countries, this is seen as a considerable advantage and something to be proud of. Understanding another language takes effort and increases your capacity of thinking outside the box; it also makes a person more empathic. Being able to speak another language used to be valued in the US, but not anymore. Trump v. Buttigieg 2-0.
The Aristoteles paradoxy
The rule of thumb is that the academically dumber candidate will get the undecided voters. Being academic often means that you are more careful and more thoughtful in your claims. Ask a vegan about hunting, and you will see.
Acknowledging that issues are complicated and never entirely black or white often leads to longer and more complicated answers with few simple solutions. This gives some voters a migraine, they want a short, uncomplicated, and often racist solution which is easy to understand and explainable to Uncle Bob.
A lot of Trump voters felt that he spoke the truth without any political bullshit. He was real and said stuff no other politician dared to. He put into words exactly what they growled about during poker-night. This is what populists do: they say stupid shit that sounds good to people that swim in their own misery and hunger to put the blame on someone else: immigrants, Muslims or Jews. Harvard and Oxford puts Buttigieg in the elitist category. Trump v. Buttigieg 3-0.
Two-term tradition
It's been debated if it was Washington or Jefferson who set the informal precedent for a two-term limit for the Presidency. A few challenged the norm unsuccessfully. Roosevelt broke it twice and a few years after his death the 22nd Amendment formally establishing the two-term limit.
It appears that the tradition of two terms has benefitted the sitting President. For the last 100 years, the President has had a clear advantage to be reelected after his first term. There are outliers like Carter and H.W.Bush, but their loss has been strongly connected with a collapsing economy. Trumpenomics is still going strong; the stable genius will be able to ride on the lucrative wave put in motion by record high deficits, reduced taxes, and the butterfly effect. Trump v. Buttigieg 4-0.
Military record
To some veterans disgust the Americans are specialized in honoring their war heroes with all the bells and whistles during public events. One would think that a candidates military record would be essential in the race of becoming the Commander in Chief of the biggest military force the world has ever seen. It might have been so in the past, but those days are gone.
After the Presidency of Eisenhower in the 50s, the military record has gotten a reversed influence. One of the more prominent war heroes, Republican John McCain, got beat by Obama in 2008 and butchered by Trump in 2016. If you are a Democrat, your military record is even less relevant. George W. Bush's campaign destroyed the Democrat John Kerry's military career from Vietnam in the election of 2004. Whatever Buttigieg did in Afghanistan, Trump will ridicule it without feeling any shame in his bone spur. Trump v. Buttigieg 5-0.
Appearance is everything
Helmut Kohl was the legendary chancellor of Germany through the 80 -90s. He was the one keeping West Germany stable during the end of the cold war and through the unification process. Legend has it that he always gained a significant amount of weight before an election. He arguably had a theory that the physically larger candidate would have an advantage.
President Taft took this theory to the extreme with his 350 pounds in the early 20th century. He eventually lost partly due to his excess weight. So there is a limit, even for the Americans. Trump, however, has found the perfect middle ground. After exaggerating his height and underestimating his weight, he officially got a BMI (Body Mass Index) that was just under what would be considered obese. With a badly fitting suit and a tie to his knees Trump will look like the powerful elephant on stage next to Pete Buttigieg. Trump v. Buttigieg 6-0
The original sin of the Sodomites
Trump might be the elephant on stage, but the homosexual Pete Buttigieg will definitely be the elephant in the room.
That horrible sin introduced to humanity by a couple of pervert angels that got lost in the villages of Sodom and Gomorrah is something the Christian right just cannot ignore. The biblical story perfectly illustrates the attitude of the Trump voters: they rather sacrifice their virgin daughters to a horde of rapists than give the nuke codes to a gay man.
In the 70s the openly gay politician Harvey Milk led the way and slowly started to make the case that homosexuals can be functional human beings and political leaders despite their pervertic sexual preferences. He was murdered within a year in office, but he did give the ball of tolerance a small push.
However, getting elected in San Fransisco is not only a different ball game; it's a different sport altogether in comparison to becoming President of the United States. For the disheartened, it might be comforting to know that Wisconsin who voted for Trump also elected the first openly gay Senator: Tammy Baldwin. So, there is hope for the future, but unfortunately, we have to get through the homophobic present first. Trump v. Buttigieg 7-0.
Many of these political micro incentives will be in Trump's favor, regardless of who he will be facing in 2020. Nothing has occurred that would change the prediction I made in February; Trump will win in 2020. His victory is as inevitable as the horrors of climate change. We just have to accept it and try to deal with it. Hold on to your hats; it's going to be a bumpy ride.
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